Dear Stock Ideas Daily subscriber, Welcome to this special edition of the Stock Ideas Daily newsletter, in which we share with subscribers an exclusive excerpt from a SA PRO stock idea that has begun to play out, but that still has plenty of meat left on the bone. SA PRO subscribers (details here) received an early look at this article, but we wanted to share the idea with you as it is still playing out. Get 5 top daily ideas, such as this one, by subscribing as a PRO member. Now to the idea... On November 7, SA PRO author Michael Boyd released a long thesis on Huntsman Corp. (HUN, market cap $4.7B), saying shares have 56% upside due to an upcoming spinoff. Since publication, HUN is +16%, leaving 34% upside. The full article is exclusive to SA PRO subscribers, but a summary of his thesis appears below: | | "Huntsman (HUN) has been plagued by relative valuation for years. Savvy investors likely have spotted the large and perceivable discounts against peers such as Celanese, Ashland, Chemours, or Westlake Chemical. This issue has been a thorn in management's side for some time, and likely stems from the company's conglomeration of assets. There is something to be said for simplicity, and in time-old tradition, what better way to create value than to spin-off assets? Management has decided to spin-off the volatile Pigments & Additives and Textile Effects segments, following a move by DuPont to do the same with its titanium dioxide business (resulting in Chemours). Most of the revenue here (50% ttm, >70% mid-cycle according to management) is generated from the titanium dioxide (TiO2) business, and at first glance, timing couldn't be better. This is due to the risk-on view of the market on a turnaround in titanium dioxide prices, which has driven substantial bets into a turnaround on beaten-down TiO2 producers. The entire industry has languished for years, and has been plagued by continuous losses since 2012. The off-loading of these highly cyclical assets, combined with the resulting reduction in leverage from spin-off proceeds, will leave behind a stable, free cash flow generating entity with significant untapped value. There will be an earnings re-rating that takes place after the spin-off, a move that will unlock significant upside for legacy Huntsman shareholders, even after considering the near doubling of shares off January 2016 lows. Despite that move, the company is well below highs reached throughout 2014 and 2015, and substantial upside remains." | Michael's full thesis on HUN is exclusive to SA PRO subscribers; you can access it here. SA PRO membership, at just $200/month, gives you access to many carefully selected top ideas. In 2016, PRO long ideas returned a benchmark-beating 24.7%. By the way, Boyd was also the runner-up of SA's 2016 long-idea competition. His thesis on SXCP returned an amazing 284% during 2016. If you sign up for SA PRO in the next 3 days, we'll also send you our CEO's favorite PRO idea: a stock with more than 150% upside and a $7B+ market cap. | | | | |
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